Republicans are counting on a strong 2026 midterm to keep control of Congress.
But top forecaster Nate Silver just released numbers that don’t look good.
And Republicans were left in shock over this pollster’s doomsday warning for the GOP.
As Conservative Reboot reports:
Polling analyst Nate Silver currently gives Democrats a 57% chance of winning control of the Senate.
NEW Silver Bulletin House and Senate forecast —
57.3% chance Dems control Senate
86.6% chance Dems control House pic.twitter.com/UHmVxROLun— Medium Buying (@MediumBuying) August 11, 2026
Winning the Senate means Democrats can block President Trump from filling a Supreme Court vacancy.
Pollster Matt Towery told Fox News host Laura Ingraham that, on the one hand, Republicans didn’t need to sweat forecasts like Silver’s because they were based on polls flooding the field from outlets that were normally biased towards Democrats.
Towery predicted the polling would change when fairer pollsters like him began surveying races.
“Two things to say about that. Number one, there are a lot of polls in there that come from groups that normally lean Democrat in their results. I think when you get more Republican, sort of fair to Republican pollsters, we don’t lean Republican. I think you’ll get better numbers in some of these races; those good polls haven’t come out yet.
But Towery criticized Republican messaging, saying that if it didn’t change, it would lead to defeat in November.
“The second thing I want to say is this,” Towery went on to say.
Towery explained that Republicans simply shouting about socialism wasn’t going to turn the tide, and that the GOP needed to make the affirmative case for the Trump record by reminding Americans that Trump cut inflation in half from its peak during the Biden administration.
“With that sort of challenge in front of them. I want the Republicans to tell me what their message is going to be. Because you have got 80-something days left. I just thought of this: we are talking about socialism and liberalism. They are both basically the same. Why don’t you give them this number: 570 days into the Trump Administration right now. He has got headline inflation of 3.5%. And Biden, in 570 days of his administration, had 8.5. That’s what happens when you let ultra liberals and socialists back into running the government. Get that theme out there and merge it together,” Towery added.
Towery’s comments echoed remarks made by Vice President JD Vance to Fox News host Will Cain, where Vance implored Republicans that “throwing slogans at people” wasn’t enough to stop the rise of socialism and that they needed to campaign on the Trump record of bringing jobs back to America and inflation rates down.
“You don’t stop socialism by throwing slogans at people about the free market,” he said. “As much as I love the free market, you stop socialism by making people’s lives better, and that’s what we’re trying to do every single day,” Vance declared.
